MidnightWatcher – Prophecy in Motion

By Sachin Parashar – “China continues to deploy four new nuclear capable ballistic missiles, including one that can be launched from submarines (SLBM), causing fear among its neighbours and the US, says a latest report by Federation of American Scientists. This, coupled with Beijing’s reluctance to define its minimum deterrence posture, says the report, has raised doubts about its intentions in upgrading its nuclear and missile arsenal.

The report authored by scientists Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris estimates that China has 240 nuclear warheads. While the report focuses mainly on China’s attempts to target the US by assigning an increasing number of warheads to its long-range missiles, it says Beijing is now using the 7,200 km-range DF-31 missiles to target India and Russia instead of the earlier DF-4.

Indian officials say it’s worrisome that Delingha in central Qinghai province is one of the places, where most of the upgrade is taking place. Not more than 2,000km from Delhi, Delingha is meant to be used almost exclusively for India as other countries from here like Nepal, Myanmar and Pakistan are not identified as potential targets.

Kristensen told TOI that India was a potential target, but added that the Chinese nuclear policy is geared towards all potential adversaries, each of which has its own characteristics. ‘India to the south is countered with medium-range missiles from central (Delingha region) and southern (Kunming region) China,’ he said.

‘One factor that can contribute to making the situation better or worse between China and India is of course India’s own military modernization along the India-China border as well as India’s development of longer-range nuclear missiles that are more directly aimed at China,’ he added.” Read more.

Flashback: The Cold War was scary enough. Now try to imagine a nuclear arms race between China and India – “Europeans and Americans, who have dominated world affairs for so long, are understandably fascinated by the recent rise of China and India. It’s obvious that the rapid economic resurgence of these two great Asian powers fundamentally alters the global rules of the game… Lately, though, another element is threatening to complicate the strategic calculus: the nuclear factor. In themselves, of course, nuclear weapons are nothing new to either country. China has been a nuclear power for decades, while India conducted its first nuclear test in 1974 (though most outsiders tend to think of 1998, when New Delhi conducted a series of underground explosions designed to establish its bona fides as a genuine nuclear power). Although both countries have sworn off first use, both have built up formidable deterrents designed to retaliate against any attackers. So what’s new? A lot. Concurrent with their rising economic might, China and India have set about modernizing their militaries to lend extra muscle to their growing strategic ambitions — and given their complicated history, that can’t help but spark worries.” Read more.