MidnightWatcher – Prophecy in Motion

NASA Science – “Something unexpected is happening on the sun. 2013 is supposed to be the year of Solar Max, the peak of the 11-year sunspot cycle. Yet 2013 has arrived and solar activity is relatively low. Sunspot numbers are well below their values in 2011, and strong solar flares have been infrequent for many months.

The quiet has led some observers to wonder if forecasters missed the mark. Solar physicist Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center has a different explanation:

‘This is solar maximum,’ he suggests. ‘But it looks different from what we expected because it is double peaked.’

Conventional wisdom holds that solar activity swings back and forth like a simple pendulum. At one end of the cycle, there is a quiet time with few sunspots and flares. At the other end, Solar Max brings high sunspot numbers and solar storms. It’s a regular rhythm that repeats every 11 years.

Reality, however, is more complicated. Astronomers have been counting sunspots for centuries, and they have seen that the solar cycle is not perfectly regular. For one thing, the back-and-forth swing in sunspot counts can take anywhere from 10 to 13 years to complete; also, the amplitude of the cycle varies. Some solar maxima are very weak, others very strong.

Pesnell notes yet another complication: ‘The last two solar maxima, around 1989 and 2001, had not one but two peaks.’ Solar activity went up, dipped, then resumed, performing a mini-cycle that lasted about two years.

The same thing could be happening now. Sunspot counts jumped in 2011, dipped in 2012, and Pesnell expects them to rebound again in 2013: ‘I am comfortable in saying that another peak will happen in 2013 and possibly last into 2014,’ he predicts.

Another curiosity of the solar cycle is that the sun’s hemispheres do not always peak at the same time. In the current cycle, the south has been lagging behind the north. The second peak, if it occurs, will likely feature the southern hemisphere playing catch-up, with a surge in activity south of the sun’s equator.” Read more.

SpaceWeather.com – “Comet Pan-STARRS (C/2011 L4) is now inside the orbit of Mercury, brightening as it plunges toward the sun. Observers in the southern hemisphere report say they can see Pan-STARRS with the unaided eye in the evening sunset sky. Carl Gruber photographed the comet on March 2nd over the city lights of Melbourne, Australia:

‘Despite bad light and smog pollution, the comet’s nucleus was clearly visible to the naked eye as well as a small part of the tail,’ says Gruber. Light curves show the comet is approaching 2nd magnitude, about as bright as the stars of the Big Dipper.

Several important dates are approaching. On March 5th, Comet Pan-STARRS makes its closest approach to Earth (1.09 AU), followed on March 10th by its closest approach to the sun (0.3 AU). As Comet Pan-STARRS passes the sun, solar glare will make it difficult to see even as the nucleus vaporizes and brightens. By March 12th and 13th, the comet will reappear in the sunset skies of the northern hemisphere not far from the crescent Moon; think photo-op! Check the realtime comet gallery for the latest images.” Source – SpaceWeather.com.

By NANCY ATKINSON, Universe Today – “A newly found asteroid will pass just inside the orbit of the Moon, with its closest approach on March 4, 2013 at 07:35 UTC. Named 2013 EC, the asteroid is about the size of the space rock that exploded over Russia two and a half weeks ago, somewhere between 10-17 meters wide (the Russian meteorite is estimated to be about 15 meters wide when it entered Earth’s atmosphere). 2013 EC was discovered by the Mt. Lemmon Observatory in Arizona on March 2. . There is no chance this asteroid will hit Earth.

2013 EC will come within 396,000 kilometers from Earth, (246,000 miles, or around 1.0 lunar distances, 0.0026 AU.

The Moon’s distance from the Earth varies between 363,104 km (225,622 miles) at perigee (closest) and 406,696 km (252,088 miles) at apogee (most distant point).

Gianluca Masi from the Virtual Telescope Project had a live view of the asteroid when it was about twice the distance of the Moon, and a replay of that webcast is available below.

‘That we are finding all these asteroids recently does not mean that we are being visited by more asteroids,’ Masi said during the webcast, ‘just that our ability to detect them has gotten so much better. Our technology has improved a lot over the past decades.’

More info about 2013 EC on the JPL Small Body Database.” Source – Universe Today.

Just in time for the Feast of Tabernacles 2014 and less than one year after another comet is scheduled to swing by in late 2013 during Hannukah that may, according to reports, blaze brighter than the full moon, becoming one of the greatest in history …

By Nancy Atkinson, Universe Today – “There is an outside chance that a newly discovered comet might be on a collision course with Mars. Astronomers are still determining the trajectory of the comet, named C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring), but at the very least, it is going to come fairly close to the Red Planet in October of 2014. ‘Even if it doesn’t impact it will look pretty good from Earth, and spectacular from Mars,’ wrote Australian amateur astronomer Ian Musgrave, ‘probably a magnitude -4 comet as seen from Mars’s surface.’

The comet was discovered in the beginning of 2013 by comet-hunter Robert McNaught at the Siding Spring Observatory in New South Wales, Australia. According to a discussion on the IceInSpace amateur astronomy forum when the discovery was initially made, astronomers at the Catalina Sky Survey in Arizona looked back over their observations to find ‘prerecovery’ images of the comet dating back to Dec. 8, 2012. These observations placed the orbital trajectory of comet C/2013 A1 right through Mars orbit on Oct. 19, 2014. However, now after 74 days of observations, comet specialist Leonid Elenin notes that current calculations put the closest approach of the comet at a distance of 109,200 km, or 0.00073 AU from Mars in October 2014. That close pass has many wondering if any of the Mars orbiters might be able to acquire high-resolution images of the comet as [it] passes by.

But as Ian O’Neill from Discovery Space points out, since the comet has only been observed for 74 days (so far), so it’s difficult for astronomers to forecast the comet’s precise location in 20 months time. ‘Comet C/2013 A1 may fly past at a very safe distance of 0.008 AU (650,000 miles),’ Ian wrote, ‘but to the other extreme, its orbital pass could put Mars directly in its path. At time of Mars close approach (or impact), the comet will be barreling along at a breakneck speed of 35 miles per second (126,000 miles per hour).’

Elenin said that since C/2013 A1 is a hyperbolic comet and moves in a retrograde orbit, its velocity with respect to the planet will be very high, approximately 56 km/s. ‘With the current estimate of the absolute magnitude of the nucleus M2 = 10.3, which might indicate the diameter up to 50 km, the energy of impact might reach the equivalent of staggering 2×10¹º megatons!’ An impact of this magnitude would leave a crater 500 km across and 2 km deep, Elenin said.” Read more.

KPRC – “Many of KPRC Local 2 viewers noticed a fiery glow light up the sky Wednesday morning.

Capt. William Lowery was on his boat in the Freeport area when he saw a meteor fly across the sky in a brilliant orange flash around 3 a.m.

‘Nothing like that magnitude,’ said Lowery. ‘I’ve seen shooting stars, but this lasted three to four minutes.’

After the Russian meteor exploded across the sky, it prompted scientists to better identify large meteor and asteroid threats.

A team at the University of Hawaii is working on the Asteroid Terrestrial-Impact Last Alert System or ATLAS with the help of NASA. Scientists are hoping to one day provide one- to three-week warnings for possible regional disasters.” Source – Click2Houston.

By Samantha Tata and Olsen Ebright, NBC Los Angeles – “An authentic photo surfaced Friday afternoon capturing the bright light seen by dozens of Southern California sky watchers.

About 50 people contacted the American Meteor Society on Thursday with reports of a ‘green fireball’ lighting up the sky. Sightings were reported in Ventura, Anaheim, Van Nuys, Los Angeles, Paso Robles, San Francisco and Santa Barbara, according to the group’s website.

Photographer Susan Lary of the Southern California Weather Authority captured the so-called fireball and provided the image to NBC News.

Lary’s photograph (pictured, above) was taken with a 1-minute exposure in Lancaster, Calif., facing southwest.

‘I saw a light and looked directly at the meteor as it came down in the ocean off Corona Del Mar. Bits came off, and it was bright white,’ Laguna Hills resident Patric Barry wrote in an email to NBC4.

Barry spotted the object out of his living room window about 10:35 p.m.

The sightings come days after Bay Area residents were treated to a light show of their own when a fireball was seen streaking across the sky.” Read more.

LA Meteor Creates Bright Light Across Southern California Sky, According To Witness Reports – “Los Angeles residents reported seeing a bright light zoom across the Southern California sky late Thursday. Dozens of witnesses submitted accounts to the American Meteor Society that they saw what appeared to be a fireball, which is a very bright meteor, at about 10:30 p.m. The reports came in from across the LA area, including Alhambra, Anaheim, Burbank, Culver City, Garden Grove, La Crescenta, Pasadena and Ventura. ‘There was extreme detail of this fireball from my location,’ Leslie A. of La Crescenta reported to AMS. ‘I actually saw flames with a trail of glowing lime green attached to it. [It was] very large in size.'” Read more.

Examiner – “A sunspot growing fast on the sun has NASA taking notice. The massive sunspot has definitely grown fast and according to a report from Wednesday (Feb. 20), is large enough to ‘swallow six Earths whole.’

NASA began tracking the sunspot on Tuesday (Feb. 19) and tracked it as swelling took place over a 48-hour span. Cameras on the Solar Dynamic Observatory were able to show what was taking place. The camera have definitely revealed some interesting news about what is taking place on the sun right now.

According to NASA spokeswoman Karen Fox, ‘It has grown to over six Earth diameters across, but its full extent is hard to judge since the spot lies on a sphere, not a flat disk.’ Fox went on to talk about how the sunspots could indicate that there are solar flares ready to come next. ‘This is a fairly unstable configuration that scientists know can lead to eruptions of radiation on the sun called solar flares,’ Fox stated.

Any time a sunspot is seen growing fast on the surface of the sun, it raises the chances of a solar storm occurring. It will be very interesting to see if it causes any disruptions from satellites orbiting Earth, but that fact probably won’t be known for at least a few days. NASA has also provided an image for those interested in seeing what this new sunspot looks like.” Source – Examiner.

By Jeremy A. Kaplan, FoxNews – “It turns out the meteor that landed in Russia last week was a bit bigger than the 10 tons first reported. About 1,000 times bigger.

When a hunk of rock raced out of the morning skies over Russia on Friday and exploded with nearly 500 kilotons of energy, early size estimates from the Russian Academy of Sciences that were carried by the Associated Press, Reuters and other news wires pegged it on the small size, with a weight of about 10 tons.

Oops.

Later in the evening, after studying infrasound data from stations around the world, NASA released a new estimate revising that first guess upward by a thousand-fold: The meteorite actually weighed closer to 10,000 tons, scientists said — approximately as much as 170 M1 Abrams tanks.

‘My guess is that someone eyeballed the videos and made an educated guess,’ said Margaret Campbell-Brown, associate professor in the department of physics and astronomy at the University of Western Ontario. ‘This event was so much bigger than anything we’ve seen on video that it doesn’t surprise me the guess was off by three orders of magnitude.’

That poor estimate underscores the daunting task scientists face today: While NASA’s Near-Earth Object Program currently tracks about 10,000 objects through the heavens, there are far, far more smaller objects that are simply too tiny to track.

‘If you think about objects the size of the one that came into Russia, you’re probably looking at 100 million up there. Of those likely to intersect Earth, there’s less, maybe 100,000,’ said K.T. Ramesh, director of the Hopkins Extreme Materials Institute and a professor of mechanical engineering at Johns Hopkins. ‘Space is pretty big.’

And the size of those smaller objects — whether they’re 10 tons or 10,000 tons — makes them impossible to track with current technology, he said.” Read more.

NASA Scrambles For Better Asteroid Detection – “NASA, universities and private groups in the US are working on asteroid warning systems that can detect objects from space like the one that struck Russia last week…  It is financing to the tune of $US5 million a project at the University of Hawaii called Atlas, or Asteroid Terrestrial-Impact Alert System. Researchers say ATLAS, which will monitor the entire visible sky every night, will be able to detect objects 45 metres in diameter a week before they hit our planet. For those measuring 150 metres in diameter, the system – which could be operational in late 2015 – will give a three week heads up.” Read more.

Don’t worry. Nothing to see here. This “rare sight” happens all the time …

By Daily Mail – “Residents in south Florida spotted something in the horizon that they described ‘as orange or red fireballs in the sky,’ according to officials.

Amanda Mayer, of the West Palm Beach area, told reporters that she noticed the bright flare in the night sky on Sunday and thought it was somebody flashing a light.

Mayer said she hit the record button on her camera just in time to capture the rare sight.

‘I was like, ‘Wow! That’s weird,’ said Mayer. ‘I just started videotaping, and that’s when it happened.’

The bright flare that many saw was likely a sporadic meteor, said Coast Guard Petty Officer 3rd Class Sabrina Laberdesque.

A sporadic meteor is a rocky object that comes from the asteroid belt, Mike Hankey, operations manager for the American Meteor Society in New York, told NBC News.

He said that his organization received 27 reports within about the first two hours of the incident, an unusual amount for what he called a ‘common’ event.

‘This is a lot of reports to come in quickly,’ Hankey said.

Gauging by those reports, the meteor passed somewhere over the ocean, he noted.

‘These fireballs are common,’ Hankey said. ‘It’s rare for any one person to see one more than once or twice in their lifetime. But on any given night, it might happen somewhere in the globe a few times in a day.’

‘People should not be scared of the sky falling,’ he added.” Read more.

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Mercury News – “It may not have been as spectacular as the space rock that streaked across the skies above Russia late Thursday, but the Bay Area’s close encounter with a meteor Friday night was drawing its own attention on social networks.

Comments on Twitter indicated the object that flashed across the horizon around 7:45 p.m. was blue in color and visible throughout the Bay Area and large areas of the West Coast, with at least one reported sighting in Washington state.

Amateur video footage broadcast on KTVU-2 showed a bright streak lasting approximately five seconds that appeared to head downward. Some viewers described it as a firework in the night sky.

One commenter on Twitter, who said they saw the meteor while driving in a car in Cupertino, said the object appeared to be headed west.

Scanner traffic at the Contra Costa County Sheriff’s Office indicated that they were aware of the event, but a dispatcher said they had not received any emergency calls related to it.

Gerald McKeegan, an astronomer with the Chabot Space and Science Center in Oakland, was at the center Friday evening for its weekend stargazing sessions with free access to the center’s large telescopes, but he said they did not spot the meteor there.

He said that the center received phone calls from people who reported seeing the meteor. Based on their reports, McKeegan said it may have been what astronomers call a ‘sporadic meteor,’ an event that can happen several times a day but most of the time happens over the ocean, away from human eyes, and brings as much as 15,000 tons of space debris to Earth each year.

Meteors, hunks of rock and metal from space that fall to Earth, burn up as they go through the atmosphere, which is what apparently caused Friday night’s bright flash of light, McKeegan said.” Read more.

There hasn’t been any mention of this yet in Western MSM. All the attention seems to be focused on today’s massive explosion over Russia …

La Repubblica (Translation) – “Explosion in the sky in Cuba Meanwhile – An explosion has also been reported in the sky above Cuba. In the central region of the island an object has been seen that fell from the sky and exploded with a great noise, which shook shook houses in the region, according to reports on local television. In a report released this morning by Rodas, a town in the province of Cienfuegos, witnesses described a very bright light that has come to have large size, comparable to that of a bus, before exploding in the sky.

Marcos Rodriguez, a resident in the region defined by the issuer as an expert, reported that ‘everything seems to indicate that it was a fireball, which is a fragment of stone and metal that enters the Earth’s atmosphere at high speed.’ Experts are now examining the area for possible remains in Rodas of minerals falling from the sky, the TV station added.” Read more.

Celestial Body Explodes In Cuba (Translation) – “Residents of a locality ‘in the central region of Cuba said they had seen an object that fell from the sky and exploded with a great noise, which shook the houses of the place: it is learned from testimonies collected by local television. In a report released this morning by Rodas, town in the province of Cienfuegos, witnesses described a very bright light that has come to have large size, comparable to that of a bus, before exploding in the sky.” Source – RaiNews24.