MidnightWatcher – Prophecy in Motion

ENS – “The climate’s ‘new normal’ for most of the coming century will parallel the long-term drought that hit western North America from 2000 to 2004 – the most severe drought in 800 years – scientists report in a study published Sunday.

‘The severity and incidence of climatic extremes, including drought, have increased as a result of climate warming,’ the researchers said, adding that these long-term trends are consistent with a 21st century ‘megadrought.’

Crops and forests died and river basins dried, but as bad as conditions were during the 2000-04 drought, in the future they may be seen as the good old days, a group of 10 researchers warned Sunday in the journal ‘Nature Geoscience.’

Climate models and precipitation projections indicate this period will be closer to the ‘wet end’ of a drier hydroclimate during the last half of the 21st century, the scientists said.

‘Climatic extremes such as this will cause more large-scale droughts and forest mortality, and the ability of vegetation to sequester carbon is going to decline,’ said Beverly Law, a co-author of the study, professor of global change biology and terrestrial systems science at Oregon State University, and former science director of AmeriFlux, an ecosystem observation network.

The 2000-04 drought had the effect of amplifying climate change as vegetation withered and could no longer take up the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

This drought cut carbon sequestration by an average of 51 percent in the western United States, Canada and Mexico, the scientists calculate, although some areas were hit much harder than others. As the plants died, they released more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, with the effect of amplifying global warming.

‘During this drought, carbon sequestration from this region was reduced by half,’ Law said. ‘That’s a huge drop. And if global carbon emissions don’t come down, the future will be even worse.'” Read more.

By Andrew Gully, AFP – “The drought in America’s breadbasket is intensifying at an unprecedented rate, experts warned, driving concern food prices could soar if crops in the world’s key producer are decimated.

The US Drought Monitor reported a nearly threefold increase in areas of extreme drought over the past week in the nine Midwestern states where three quarters of the country’s corn and soybean crops are produced.

‘That expansion of D3 or extreme conditions intensified quite rapidly and we went from 11.9 percent to 28.9 percent in just one week,’ Brian Fuchs, a climatologist and Drought Monitor author, told AFP.

‘For myself, studying drought, that’s rapid. We’ve seen a lot of things developing with this drought that were unprecedented, especially the speed.’

Almost two thirds of the continental United States are now suffering drought conditions, the largest area recorded since the Drought Monitor project started in 1999.

‘If you are following the grain prices here in the US, they are reflecting the anticipated shortages with a price increase,’ Fuchs said.

‘In turn, you’re going to see those price increases trickle into the other areas that use those grain crops: cattle feed, ethanol production and then food stuffs.’

In some rural areas, municipal water suppliers are talking about mandatory restrictions because they have seen such a dramatic drop in the water table that they fear being unable to fulfill deliveries to customers, Fuchs said.

‘Things have really developed over the last two months and conditions have worsened just that quick and that is really unprecedented,’ he added.

‘Definitely exports are going to suffer because there is going to be less available and the markets are already reflecting that.

‘It’s anticipated that this drought is going to persist through the next couple of months at least and conditions are not overly favorable to see any widespread improvement.'” Read more.

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CNN – “With more than half the country in some state of drought, farmers are feeling the impact on their livelihood and consumers could expect to feel a hit in their wallet when they go to the supermarket soon, experts say.

The U.S. is facing the largest drought since the 1950s, the National Climatic Data Center reported Monday, saying that about 55% of the country was in at least moderate short-term drought in June for the first time since December 1956, when 58% of the country was in a moderate to extreme drought.

The hot, dry weather in June, which ranked as the third-driest month nationally in at least 118 years, according to the center, made the problem worse.

That has left farmers on the edge of their seat worrying about how much damage their harvests will sustain and how much of their livelihood they may stand to lose this year.

Throughout the Midwest, farmers are seeing signs of damaged crops. In the 18 states that produce most of our corn, only 31% of the crops were rated good or excellent this week, that’s down from 40% last week, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. This same time last year, 66% of corn crops were rated good or excellent. Soybean crops, which can be used in creating diesel fuel, are seeing similar troubles; 34% of the U.S. crop was rated good or excellent, down from 40% last week. This time last year, 64% were in that condition.

Derek Mullin, a farmer from Mount Pleasant, Iowa, told CNN’s Chris Welch that in a good year he can get 200 bushels of corn per acre, but this year he expects that number reduced by 25%.

That lost money will hurt him and his family and he said there is nothing he can do about it.” Read more.

By Patti Domm, CNBC – “The U.S. government declared more than 1,000 counties in 26 states drought disasters, as the economic impact of the worst crop conditions in 24 years begins to be felt.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced Wednesday that farmers in those states can qualify for low-interest emergency loans as of Thursday. The USDA said it streamlined its disaster designation process, and the counties are designated as being in severe drought because of eight-consecutive weeks of drought during the growing season.

Earlier, the USDA released its crop report, showing sharply reduced expectations for this year’s harvest and a 12 percent decline in the expected corn crop yield.

The USDA had projected this year’s crop would be a bumper harvest, yielding 166 bushels per acre. It pared that expectation back to 146 bushels, the lowest in nine years. It now expects a total crop of 12.97 billion bushels, the third-largest on record but down from what would have been an all-time high of 14.8 billion bushels.

Grain prices jumped on the initial 8:30 a.m. EDT crop report, but sold off as rumors swirled ahead of the USDA announcement on drought disaster. Traders said there was a rumor the USDA had an announcement coming that would be a negative for grain prices. Futures prices stayed close to their lows after the announcement.” Read more.